New Delhi: India is expected to see the exit of 6,500 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in 2023, the second-highest estimated outflow number globally, as per the latest Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2023. Although the second-biggest loser globally, India’s net exit numbers are predicted to drop to 6,500 in 2023 compared to last year’s 7,500, the report said.
Net outflows of HNWIs
With reference to other countries, this number of 6,500 for India for 2023 compares with expected net outflow of 13,500 HNWIs in China, 3,200 HNWIs in the UK and 3,000 in Russia. UK’s anticipated HNWI flight is double that of last year, when it saw a net exodus of 1,600 millionaires.
“These outflows are not particularly concerning as India produces far more new millionaires than it loses to migration,” Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth said, as per the report’s statement.
Sunita Singh-Dalal, Partner, Private Wealth & Family Offices at Hourani, in the report said that “prohibitive tax legislation coupled with convoluted, complex rules relating to outbound remittances that are open to misinterpretation and abuse, are but a few issues that have triggered the trend of investment migration from India”.
As it has for the past decade, China continues to lose the largest numbers of dollar millionaires each year to migration. Amoils said that “general wealth growth in China has been slowing over the past few years, which means that the recent outflows could be more damaging than usual. China’s economy grew strongly from 2000 to 2017, but wealth and millionaire growth in the country has been negligible since then (when measured in US-dollar terms)”.
Net inflow of HNWIs
Australia is expected to attract the highest net inflow of HNWIs in 2023 at 5,200. The UAE has dropped to second place following its record-breaking influx in 2022, with a net arrival of 4,500 new millionaires this year. Singapore ranks third with a net inflow of 3,200 HNWIs, its highest on record, followed by the US with an expected net influx of 2,100 millionaires.
At fifth place is Switzerland with expected net inflow of 1,800, followed by Canada with 1,600 HNWIs. These countries are followed by Greece (1,200), France (1,000 — double last year’s net intake of 500 millionaires), Portugal (800), and New Zealand (700). Israel is predicted to tumble out of the top 10 with its net inflow of millionaires set to almost halve this year to 600 compared to 1,100 in 2022.
Brexit has had an impact on the high net worth investors in the UK. “The UK’s peak net outflow year was 2017, following the Brexit referendum in 2016. Prior to this, the country enjoyed net positive inflows of HNWIs. While net losses dropped slightly between 2017 and 2019, the 2023 forecast indicates a far more significant millionaire exit is currently underway,” the report said.
The appeal of another financial giant, the US, is also dwindling fast, it said. “America is notably less popular among migrating millionaires today than pre-Covid, perhaps owing in part to the threat of higher taxes. The country still attracts more HNWIs than it loses to emigration, with a net inflow of 2,100 projected for 2023, although this is a staggering drop from 2019 levels, which saw a net inflow of 10,800 millionaires,” it said.
As per the report, the popular investment migration pathways include Portugal’s Golden Residence Permit Program, followed by Austria’s citizenship by investment offering and St. Kitts and Nevis’s Citizenship by Investment Program. Next is Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program, the fastest way for entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals to access Canadian residence and the North American market. Rising in popularity this year and last in the top five is Italy’s Residence by Investment Program, with Greece’s Golden Visa Program and Spain’s Residence by Investment Program, the report said.
The data in the Henley Private Wealth Migration Dashboard is supplied by wealth intelligence firm, New World Wealth, and covers key countries in five regions (Africa, the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe and CIS, and the Middle East). New World Wealth tracks global wealth migration trends between countries and cities.
‘Millionaires’ or ‘high-net-worth individuals’ (HNWIs) refer to those with investable wealth of US $1 million or more. The report released by international residence and citizenship advisory firm Henley & Partners features the latest net inflows and outflows of dollar millionaires (the difference between the number of HNWIs with investable wealth of USD 1 million or more who relocate to and the number who emigrate from a country). The HNWI migration figures focus on HNWIs who stay in their new country more than six months a year.